iPad Will Transform Print Media, Not TV

That's right, folks. That cracking noise you hear is me, out on a limb, making a bold prediction somewhat publicly. Normally I would just think something like this to myself, so that I could later tell my friends "I saw that coming." However, just once, I would like there to be proof of my prescience. So here goes:

The killer app for iPad (and its ilk) is the printed word-- newspapers, magazines, and perhaps some books. Not video, and not games. Those will certainly be a big part of the iPad, along with music, email, and the web. But I think that iPad will ultimately rejuvenate and even transform organized journalism.

My argument was brazenly stolen by none other than Steve Jobs himself: "It has to do something better than a phone, and better than a laptop." And better than whatever else its replacing.

Blogs are great "long tail" outlets for journalism that would otherwise not see wide distribution. But there is much to be said also for the kind of editorial process that produces publications like the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, The Economist, and The Smithsonian. These are what I like to read over coffee in the morning, or whenever I have a few quiet minutes throughout the day.

Physical newspapers and magazines have to be picked up or delivered, carried around, and then disposed of -- all wasteful, time and resource consuming activities with which I would happily part if there were some other way to get my reading fix.

Of course all of these pubs are available online, and I CAN get them both on my laptop and on my smart phone (an iPhone, if you must know). But I don't. Well, that's not quite true; I do pick up a few bits here and there, but not if I have to pay for it. Reading these pubs on a phone or laptop is just too awkward to enjoy.

But I can easily see myself flipping through virtual pages of pretty pictures and pithy words on an iPad, and happily paying for subscriptions. I may even feel a sense that I'm getting a bargain since I don't have to tramp through the snow to the end of my driveway or stop at the news stand, haul out piles of old papers, or feel guilty about killing trees. I have a feeling that I'm not alone.

So, in a few years, when we look back on the introduction of iPad (and similar devices) I predict that we will be saying that "iPad was to organized print journalism what iPod was to music".

Someone will be gloating. I hope it will be me.